Five auto insights investors should know from top BofA analyst

Detroit – When China talks about rules, electric vehicles, software innovations and competitiveness, the automotive industry is facing unprecedented obstacles and uncertainty.

Many years have passed since making such obstacles, but many cases are coming to the fore later, which facilitates chaos and new vehicles for car makers.

“Unprecedented EV -head fake has devastated product projects,” Top Bank of America's securities analyst John Murphy said in the firm's annual “car war” report. “The next four+ year product strategy will be the most uncertain and unstable time ever.”

The proprietary “car war” report predicts future products and projects in the next several years. The dissertation of this report is that alternative rates (or a percentage of vehicles that are expected to be replaced by new models) drives the showroom age, which operates market share, which leads to profitability and stock prices.

The average change rate of the industry over the next four years has been included in more than 16 % automackers Tesla (22.4 %), Honda motor (16.9 %), Hyundai Motor/What (16.5 %) and Ford motor (16.1 %), according to the car. Are at the bottom of the analysis Snatch (12.3 %), Toyota motor (13.7 %) and traditional European carmaker (15.2 %). General motors Is at 15.7 % while steellantis 15.4 %.

In addition to alternative rates, Murphy made numerous predictions about the auto industry on Wednesday. Should know about five investors here:

Murphy is expected to announce the cost of about $ 1.9 billion and in writing, which will lead to many such losses for automated makers about EVS due to the elimination of the planned all -electric three -row SUVs.

“Many tough decisions need to be made,” he said during a program of the Automotive Press Association in the suburbs on Wednesday. “Based on the study of ('car war'), I think we will see a multi -billion dollar writing that has been in the floods for the next few years.”

Automackers have fled in recent years to spend billions of dollars for EVs, expecting a market that has not been expected to be expected soon.

Amidst the uncertainty of EV, many car makers have helped “customer choice”, which means that in other technologies such as hybrid and plugin hybrid vehicles, as well as internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles (ICE) are also important investments.

Due to this fluctuating and uncertainty, Murphy said that automated makers have a heavy tilt in their basic products, including internal combustion engines, to create capital.

Murphy said, “Indeed, every one has been bowed to their core in the next four years in the next four years,” Murphy said, “Cash for automated makers” will be very important “in the coming years.

This year's “car warrior” investor's title identifies the notice that changes: “EV plans as an ice age plans to frozen.”

The uncertainty of the industry is not special to the United States, which is the Chinese auto industry – the world's largest car sales market – between price war and stalling sales.

Murphy said, “What you are seeing in China is a bit disturbing because there is a shortage of demand. Prices are declining, and many exports are increasing, especially in the last four or five years.

Boffe's top analysts described the Chinese market as “slipping on itself” due to prices war, which is expected to lead to massive stability of China's hundreds of automotive brands.

According to a report by Namura this week, in China, the average retail price has dropped by almost 19 % to 165,000 yuan ($ 22,900) over the past two years.

The report states that in the last two years, prices for hybrid or range expansion were faster, while battery only saw a 21 % drop in prices. It noted that traditional fuel -powered cars saw an average of 18 % on average.

Although there are very few exports to the United States, Murphy said the Chinese brand is expected to eventually compete in the market. However, he warned that it would be better to protect the US market from Chinese brands in the near term to avoid such problems locally.

“I just don't think from a technology or a geographical political point of view, that you really want to keep the United States from the wall from China. It can only be that you want to keep the US market safe unless it works itself and we see widespread stability in the Chinese market,” he said.

“Car Wars” predicted that the new introduction of vehicles will change during the second half of this decade, as automakers will re -consider the product lineup and slow replacement rates in the near term.

A major change is in cross -over vehicles – which has a combination of SUV and car properties – which has significantly increased popularity over the past decades.

Boffa reports that the crossover has been “surge.” For the first time for almost 20 years, Murphy said that the crossover presented the launch for the last 10 to 20 years.

“The wild thing this year is that this year, we expect 159 models to be launched in the next four years. Last year, more than 200, traditionally, it is more than 200,” Murphy said. “We have never seen this kind of change before.”

A portion of the shift comes when derivative car makers-large producers of such vehicles focus on updating or re-designing their highly profitable full-sized pickup trucks.

According to the report, Japanese carmakers have also had a focus on cars, with unprecedented volatility products.

In recent years, investors have been skeptical of many auto -stocks as the expected growth areas have declined.

But Murphy believes that the software still has a significant potential for car makers as well as their retailers.

“In the near future, it is taking advantage of the contact, after which we know that Value China is a very profitable part,” Murphy said. “They are shut down to some extent to pay attention to consumers and dealer body, which will create a real, real opportunity to some extent, to some extent.”

The market industry and business, including sales and service, represents $ 2.4 trillion in revenue, Murphy said. Of this, $ 1.2 trillion was caught by dealers, making a profit of about $ 53 billion. It says there is another 2 1.2 trillion escaping from automaches, which has a profit of $ 133 billion that can be obtained by vehicle contact.

“It is important that you ride and run the dealers, rather than non -franchised repair shops, instead of non -franchised repair shops.”